Antonelli has dominated 2026 with eight wins and holds a commanding 102-point lead; his Mercedes has clear pace superiority at COTA. Russell as teammate and Verstappen closing rapidly round out a competitive podium. Two stops is COTA's historical standard for optimal strategy with this generation of cars and Pirelli compounds.
Race predictions · 2026
United States Grand Prix 2026: our predictions
Overall confidence: LikelyLocked Fri, 23 Oct 2026 23:42:03 UTC
The picks
| Call | Our pick |
|---|---|
| Winner | Andrea Kimi Antonelli |
| Podium (any order) | Andrea Kimi Antonelli, George Russell, Max Verstappen |
| Pole | Andrea Kimi Antonelli |
| Dominant strategy | Two-stop |
| Safety car? | Yes |
The reasoning
These predictions are editorial analysis with confidence labels. They are not betting advice or a wager recommendation, and nothing here should be relied on for gambling.
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