Methodology
How we make and score predictions
Our predictions are editorial analysis, locked before the race and scored against the official result afterward. This page is the full method, so the accuracy record on the predictions page can be taken at face value.
What we call
Before every Grand Prix we lock five predictions:
- 01Winner the driver we expect to win.
- 02Podium the three drivers we expect on the rostrum, scored order-agnostic.
- 03Pole the driver we expect to qualify first.
- 04Dominant strategy the tyre plan we expect to define the race (one-stop, two-stop, and so on).
- 05Safety car whether we expect one to be deployed.
How we score, out of 7
| Call | Points |
|---|---|
| Winner | 1 |
| Podium (1 per correct driver) | 3 |
| Pole | 1 |
| Dominant strategy | 1 |
| Safety car | 1 |
| Maximum per race | 7 |
The headline accuracy figure is simply the total points we have scored divided by the points available across every race we have scored so far. It only moves once a race is in the books.
Why you can trust the record
- Locked before the race. Every prediction carries the timestamp it was committed, ahead of the session it concerns.
- Scored after, never revised. We grade against the official classification and do not quietly edit a call that aged badly.
- Confidence-labelled. Each set carries a Confirmed, Likely, Speculative, or Unknown label, in line with our editorial standards.
- Analysis, not betting. These are predictions for readers who follow the sport, not wager recommendations.